The headline of this post has been attributed to the Danish physicist Niels Bohr as well as to others.
For a better insight into the value of forecasting, it is useful to review our post titled 2018 Market Predictions.
When asked what the markets will do, J. P. Morgan is set to have stated “they will fluctuate”. Apart from that certainty, there are only few other reliable market predictors.
Combining a look at market direction with trading volume is frequently useful. In the chart above we can see a falling market on rising volume at the end of February of this year. A falling market on rising volume frequently predicts a continued market drop. And sure enough, the market continued to fall until the end of March.
After that, the market began to rise on falling volume! Based on history, that suggests that the rise is temporary.
Let us revisit this post in a few months.
Regardless, market direction is unimportant to Monday Morning Millionaire Program members. By maintaining our personal asset allocation, we take profits when the market rises and buy bargains when it drops. Both directions give us satisfaction.