Who would drive knowing that there is a 50% chance of an accident?
Investors buying or selling an individual security, face exactly that.
If the security goes up in value, the buyer is right and the seller is wrong. If the security drops in value, the buyer is wrong and the seller is right. They cannot both be right.
In any investment transaction, past or future, investors face a 50% chance of being wrong.
That is why the Monday Morning Program recommends buying shares of the entire US economy as represented by an exchange-traded fund which tracks the S&P 500. The latter is an excellent approximation of the US economy, one of the strongest in history. No stock-picking (except in your “fun” portfolio).
All the mistakes that any investor ever made or will make in the future arise from ignoring one or more of the six habits which we promote.
Don’t go there (except in your “fun” portfolio).
With the habits of the Monday Morning Program, luck hardly matters.