Forecasts: the best way to benefit from them

 

Who but a weather forecaster could be wrong most of the time and still keep the job?

Investment gurus, that’s who.

Recently, renowned economist, James Rickards  published Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos (Penguin Books Limited, Jul. 23, 2019). Daunting title, prominent author, plausible gloomy forecasts, difficult reading – only street bums with no assets could ignore it!

However, the record shows that renowned guru forecasts are worse than a coin flip. Well-known gurus predicting the stock market, economic growth, currencies or interest rates make weather forecasters look good.

Making forecasts costs nothing. Attractively packaged in a book put out  by an established publisher, such forecasts can make money for their authors.  Investing based on these forecasts is, at best, less than optimal and at worst, a money-losing activity much of the time.

The best way for Monday Morning Millionaire Program members to benefit from  “expert” forecasts is to practice the habits of Monday morning Millionaires and to ignore the forecasts. We should read them for amusement only.

Members who want to spend time studying well-documented economic forecasting history can read Larry Swedroe’s May 20, 2019 article.


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Dr. Milan Somborac

The Monday Morning Millionaire Program supports do-it-yourself (DIY) investors which I have been for over 50 years. About my team and me

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