Who but a weather forecaster could be wrong most of the time and still keep the job?
Investment gurus, that’s who.
Recently, renowned economist, James Rickards published Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos (Penguin Books Limited, Jul. 23, 2019). Daunting title, prominent author, plausible gloomy forecasts, difficult reading – only street bums with no assets could ignore it!
However, the record shows that renowned guru forecasts are worse than a coin flip. Well-known gurus predicting the stock market, economic growth, currencies or interest rates make weather forecasters look good.
Making forecasts costs nothing. Attractively packaged in a book put out by an established publisher, such forecasts can make money for their authors. Investing based on these forecasts is, at best, less than optimal and at worst, a money-losing activity much of the time.